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All-Star Break #2 – Where do we go from here?

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I averaged out predictions I made before the season began with those made by the Bill James Handbook 2008 and compared them with the stats actually produced up to the All-Star Break.

Here’s how the Yankee hitters are doing compared to those pre-season expectations:

Hideki Matsui

Projected: Games – 79, Average –  .293, Home Runs- 15.
Actual: Games – 69, Average – .323, Home Runs – 7.

Two factors here – the first is the inability to hit for power (markedly less home runs), the second is the inability to play the field on a regular basis. Both of these point up the significance of his problems with his legs which may have finished him for the rest of the season. By contrast, his batting average is up as much as his slugging is down. A future as a successful singles hitter and DH (an unusual combination) or early retirement. Time will tell.

Johnny Damon

Projected: Games – 89, Average – .278, Home Runs – 9
Actual: Games – 82, Average –  .319, Home Runs – 6

Similar story for Damon. His decline began in the second half of 2006 and is also associated with aging legs. His average has rebounded to 2005 (Boston) heights but power is down and he has his first period on the disabled list. The twist in this is that his injury is a damaged shoulder and nothing to do with his legs. This suggests that there is more hope in him continuing as an outfielder than Matsui but he is another reason for the dramatic reduction in the Yankees’ power production.

Alex Rodriguez

Projected: Games – 93, Average – .300, Home Runs – 28
Actual: Games – 75, Average –  .312, Home Runs – 19

Rodriguez’s stint on the disabled list has hampered his home run total but not his slugging pct. (I had him at .586, he is actually 581 – a very minimal difference. Not many people expected A-Rod to still be a Yankee right now. Given the shenanigans of the close season and the off-field rumours as well as the injury, he is doing remarkably well.

Derek Jeter

Projected: Games – 93, Average – .312, Home Runs – 9
Actual: Games – 88, Average – .284, Home Runs – 5

Jeter is just not quite himself at the moment. His figures are still good but he has set a remarkable standard for himself which he is not matching. Difficult to know if this is just a blip or whether it is a sign of a slight downturn.

Bobby Abreu

Projected: Games – 94, Average – .285, Home Runs – 12
Actual: Games – 92, Average – .274, Home Runs – 10

Again, a slight downturn but it is made more significant because there is a trend like this across the team. 10 points off average and only 2 home runs down but we need him to step up as one of the few injury-free players in the squad.

Jorge Posada

Projected: Games – 84, Average – .281, Home Runs – 12
Actual: Games – 49, Average – .272, Home Runs – 3

Posada had a BIG year in 2007. So far, injury and lack of managerial confidence have spiked his year in 2008. He spent a long time out (35 games down on prediction) but despite the fact that Molina didn’t carry the responsibility of being first choice during the actual injury time, part of this is because Girardi has continued to favour Molina since Posada’s return; citing arm strength as his reason. During this period of uncertainty, Posada’s batting average has dropped off markedly but his home run production and slugging has never got out of the doldrums.

Jason Giambi

Projected: Games – 72, Average – .249, Home Runs – 15
Actual: Games – 83, Average – .253, Home Runs – 19

Going into the season, Giambi was going to share DH with Matsui and 1B with a whole range of possible candidates. Not many of those candidates reached expectations and with Mientkiewicz already gone to other pastures and Shelley Duncan failing miserably, Giambi became the most prominent first baseman due primarily to his huge contract – if we’re going to have to pay him, he might as well play somewhere. The remarkable thing is that this undue perseverance actually paid dividends. First, he began to hit for power and then his average perked up as well. Things are a little quieter right now and whilst no-one is going to make this guy a sporting hero (stache or no stache), he is so much more valuable than I expected.

Robinson Cano

Projected: Games – 88, Average – .322, Home Runs – 11
Actual: Games – 93, Average – .246, Home Runs – 6

Robinson is stranded in a season-long funk (so far) and his fall off in every offensive category is more marked than anyone else on the team. The only positive is that his batting average in July (but not his slugging) has taken a marked upturn to .273 on the month. This is still nowhere near what we expect but it is a step in the right direction.

Wilson Betemit

Projected: Games – 77, Average – .263, Home Runs – 10
Actual: Games – 47, Average – .243, Home Runs – 4

It’s hard to be positive about that second line but I’m going to be. Simply put, prior to his time on the disabled list, Betemit was awful. Since that time, he has become our most important bench and utility player. Offensive figures don’t show everything (particularly not the meagre selection presented here) and he has done very well defensively as well as putting up .267 BA in June. So far, July has seen him back in the doldrums with the bat but the mere fact he is still here is quite something after the opening to the season he had.

Melky Cabrera

Projected: Games – 90, Average – .283, Home Runs – 6
Actual: Games – 92, Average – .241, Home Runs – 8

With Cabrera I’m looking for a good day in the field and a clutch of singles. Perversely, his home run hitting is up! Defensively, he has been fine but that 40 point drop in average is part of the general trend but is worrying all by itself. You begin to wonder about the coaching staff when the malaise is this wide spread.

So that it’s for the hitters:

Pluses: Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon,
Minuses: Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera
Surprises: Jason Giambi, Wilson Betemit

All-Star Break # 1 – Adding insult………………….

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There are many ways to consider the Yankees performance in the first half of the season. One of the main things to influence our performance (and put us in third place) is the extensive list of players who have spent time on the disabled list during this period. Here they are (in alphabetical order):

RHP Jonathan Albaladejo — Out for the season with a stress fracture in his right elbow. Albaladejo was a surprising breakthrough but he will have to do it all over again.

IF Wilson Betemit — Missed 19 games beginning on April 14 with corneal conjunctivitis, then was on the disabled list in May with a strained right hamstring. Fortunately, he’s come back a better player for the examinations he received during that time.

RHP Brian Bruney — Tore a ligament in his right foot in April; avoided surgery and could rejoin the Yankees in late July. We need him back and we need him to be the player that he was this season rather than the player he was at the end of last year.

OF Johnny Damon — Hit the disabled list for the first time in his career on July 6 with a sprain and contusion of the left joint of the left shoulder. His best-case return would be 15 days, and his throwing may be limited. The good money is that he will be out quite a bit longer.

1B Shelley Duncan — Separated his right shoulder while diving for a ball in a game at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and may be out for the season. Let’s face it, he was going nowhere before he was sent to Scranton.

RHP Phil Hughes — Has been on the disabled list since April 30 with a stress fracture in one of his ribs. He could return in August. Let’s hope the 2007 guy show’s up if he does make it back then.

SS Derek Jeter — Was hit in the left hand by a Daniel Cabrera fastball on May 20 and fell into an extended slump immediately after. Things have improved since then but he’s still not the Jeter of old.

RHP Ian Kennedy – Went to disabled list but there’s obviously far more going on here mechanically than a simple injury. I don’t expect to see him making a run at the Major Leagues before Spring Training

DH Hideki Matsui — Aggravated his left knee by playing the outfield for two games in Houston and is currently on the disabled list. Season-ending surgery is a possibility. He was the guy to cover for Damon’s aging legs. He can still hit but his fielding days might be behind him.

RHP Carl Pavano — Continuing to rehab from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery and could be ready for a big league promotion in August. But why would you need to work for a living when you can earn all that money for doing nothing?

C Jorge Posada — Was on the disabled list from April 28 through June 3 with right rotator cuff tendinitis that curtailed his throwing. Since then has done far more at DH and 1B (!) since then. What’s that about? Girardi doesn’t trust his arm.

3B Alex Rodriguez — Missed 16 games with a strained right quadriceps after turning a strain into something more serious by rushing back. It was Rodriguez’s first stint on the DL since 2000. He’s one of the few who’s bounced back from injury.

RHP Humberto Sanchez — Currently pitching in the Minor Leagues, Sanchez (acquired from Detroit in the Gary Sheffield trade) could be considered for his big league debut in September. However, we are not holding our breath.

RHP Chien-Ming Wang — Suffered a partially torn tendon in his right foot on June 15 while running the bases in Houston. He is on crutches and is out until September. Along with Bruney and Damon, one of the three costly on-going absences which might cost us a spot in the post-season.

I’m a Yankee Doodle Dandy – Baseball update

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Team W L PCT GB
Boston 46 30 .605 –
Tampa Bay 43 30 .589 1.5
NY Yankees 40 34 .541 5.0
Baltimore 38 34 .528 6.0
Toronto 35 40 .467 10.5

The Yankees are enjoying their best run of the season. They’ve simultaneously put themselves in the reckoning for the division title and the wild card. So who has made the difference?

Pluses

Johnny Damon. I’m still reeling from the day that Damon went six-for-six. He was the first Yankee to do this since 1934. He’s batting .331 on the season and .434 on the month. Last year, he seemed to be fading. This year he has bounced right back.

Alex Rodriguez. 14 home runs on the season. Batting .431 on the month. Slugging .629 on the season, .831 on the month. He’s on a real tear.

Jorge Posada. He’s back. He’s more than holding his own. He’s lifted the weight off Molina. He’s being patient at the plate. ‘Nuff said.

Mariano Rivera. Early in June, he encountered his first wobbles of the season. Two home runs in consecutive games. He’s overcome that problem. His ERA on the month is now back down to 2.00. He’s just picked up his twentieth save of the season.

Jose Veras. Prone to injuries and inconsistent since he joined the Yankees, I’d placed him down amongst the also-rans and was looking forward to the day when the Yankees could consider letting him go. 2 wins and a 1.93 ERA on the month so far has turned all that around.

Mike Mussina. Despite yesterday’s defeat against the Reds, you have to acknowledge that the aging Moose has exceeded all expectations. Like Damon, there were real doubts about him coming into the season. That he has 10 wins prior to All Star day is simply outstanding.

Minuses

Melky Cabrera. He’s still inconsistent at the plate. .215 on the month. His fielding makes him a regular but he’s number 4 of the regular outfielders at the moment.

Bobby Abreu. He’s had a pretty good year but the last two weeks have been his worst – just when the team are at their best.

Alberto Gonzalez. He was called up to replace Shelley Duncan who was not getting any playing time and must be fast running out of chances. Shame is the same can be said for Gonzalez. 5 at-bats since his call up and he’s just swinging at air.

Edwar Ramirez. He has gone from a plus to a minus very quickly. In 6 games in June, he has produced a 9.00 ERA. Fortunately, the rest of the bullpen is more than holding its own but he needs to turn it around. 

Surprises

Jason Giambi. He has consistently hit for power since he pulled himself out of his early season funk but now he’s boosting his average too. .314 average in June so far.

Chad Moeller. The big surprise is that he is giving Cashman a reason to keep him in the Bronx and to carry three catchers. He’s proving a good pinch-hitter and it seems that until we’re 100% sure that Posada is going to have no more problems, then we’re not going to risk losing him entirely.

Wilson Betemit. He’s bounced back from injury and he’s holding his own. At the start of the year, given the choice between Duncan, Gonzalez and Betemit for the utility infielder, I would have placed Betemit third. Now, he is showing he is the most useful by some distance.

LaTroy Hawkins. He is doing well in June but the surprise is that the Yankees aren’t trusting him with the ball. So early in his time at the Yankees, this doesn’t bode well for a long term future in the Bronx.

Chris Britton. Like Bruney, he achieved more than expected and then got injured. His 1.29 ERA (0.00 in June) would hopefully have led to a regular spot but he’ll have to prove himself all over again, now.

Dan Giese. Where did this guy come from? Patterson was called up for one day and then replaced by Giese. It seemed like Giese wasn’t going to stay but he had just been called up to allow Patterson time to rest without relying on the relatively small number of pitchers we’re carrying. However Giese did better than Patterson had and just kept over-performing. Tonight, he has a start because of the injury to Chien-Ming Wang. I’m surprised.

Joba Chamberlain. Well, he still not making wins but he’s adapting quicker than I’d anticipated and he’s not losing. It’s enough for now.

Darrell Rasner. Seems to have lost his consistency. Hasn’t had the run support that Mussina has had but his head is beginning to drop a little and we need to take care of this guy if the rotation is going to hold together.

Billy Traber. I thought we’d seen the last of Traber but because of the injury situation, he’s got another chance. We need him to take that chance.

Opening Day Roster

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So still on the baseball theme. After several weeks of Spring training games the Yankees have named their opening day roster. Let’s have a look at the runners and riders:

Pitching Staff

Jonathan Albaladejo (63) . A little bit of an unknown quantity for me. Right-handed relief pitcher who was traded for during the off-season in the Tyler Clippard deal. Clippard was going nowhere in New York so Albaladejo, who is a better fit for a relief position by all accounts, could be a good acquisition. 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA at Washington when he came up towards the end of last year. Blew his only save opportunity.

Brian Bruney (33). Great on his day. Dreadful when he isn’t. And notoriously inconsistent. Has done well to be still around. Hope he makes the best of the opportunity.

Joba Chamberlain (62). He was going to make the starting rotation. And then he wasn’t. He comes back in roughly the same role as last year but with some of the pitch restrictions lifted but also with some of the memories of his struggles in the post-season. Only time will tell.

LaTroy Hawkins (21). Coming in from Colorado as a free agent and the fourth right-hander on the roster. Last year was a good year for him after two seasons moving around and posting an ERA over 4. NYY are expecting a lot from him. It’ll be interesting to see if he delivers.

Kyle Farnsworth (48). Another right-hand reliever. And one that the Bronx crowd will feel that they have seen enough of after two sub-par years.  It’s hard to believe he would be back again if it wasn’t for Joe Girardi taking over as manager and all the talk of their strong relationship when Farnsworth played with him before. I’m not holding my breath.

Phil Hughes (34). First of the starting pitchers on my list. Huge expectations which have been balanced a little by Chamberlain’s emergence. Improved during his short tenure in the job last season, finishing with 5 wins.

Ian Kennedy (31). Another young right-handed starter. Made just 3 appearances last year, finishing with a very solid 1.89 ERA. It will be interesting to see how he fares in May & June after his pitches are better understood by their opponents.

Mike Mussina (35). The face of experience on the starting staff, coming off a very rocky year. His figures on paper don’t look much worse for last year than some of those preceding years but the pen and ink doesn’t tell the full story. There’s a legitimate question here as to whether he can still cut it at this level and if he doesn’t it leaves precious little hiding place for the young arms, bearing in mind Pettitte’s troubled off-season.

Ross Ohlendorf (39). Texan who made six good appearance at the tail-end of last year and who had a good Spring. More of the same please.

Mariano Rivera (42). What can I say? I’ve watched a lot of baseball (contemporary and historic) over the last 20 years and Rivera is the best relief pitcher I’ve ever seen. He’s getting older but close to his best will still be better than anyone else.

Billy Traber (61). This one I didn’t anticipate. Journeyman left-handed reliever who was released by Washington after two not-very-impressive years on and off their roster. Says more about the lack of left-handed relievers in Spring Training than anything else. We’ve fooled ourselves before that ordinary pitchers can suddenly become great. Can anyone say Aaron Small?

Chien Ming-Wang (40). No. 1 starter going into the season and deservedly so for this guy coming off two 19 win seasons. Can he make 20 this time around? Slight question mark over his big occasion temperament?

Batting staff

Jose Molina (26). Solid back-up catcher who can spell Posada. Hard to imagine anyone better in the role.

Jorge Posada (20). Great season last year but he is another year older and coming off a slow Spring. Good tandem with Molina even if he doesn’t repeat.

Wilson Betemit (14). Can be used in a range of positions and is also a useful bat off the bench. Good to see him back but glad we’re not relying on him to be every day at 3b.

Robinson Cano (24). 25 years old and you won’t find many better fielding-and-hitting players in that position in the major leagues. A lot will rest on him continuing to produce.

Shelley Duncan (17). A clutch of home runs and good attitude marked his arrival in the Majors last year. His batting average dipped in the later days of the season and, for me, he is still a question mark for the long-term. 1b is wide-open and that is not necessarily a good thing.

Morgan Ensberg (11). Another surprise name. And another journeyman who is unlikely to be in the post-season in 2008 whether the Yankees make it there or not. Recently with the Astros and Padres, he is patient at the plate and will draw walks but it’s hard when that’s the best thing you can think to say about him.

Derek Jeter (2). Mr Consistency. A great shortstop and a vital part of the team. If he does well so will the Yankees

Alex Rodriguez (13). He wasn’t coming back but now he’s here for the rest of his career or until next time he changes his mind. The Canseco story might disturb him and he has to win back fans who were never really with him in the first place. We’ll see how it goes……

Bobby Abreu (53). His 101 RBIs and 25 stolen bases last year were a vital component that is easy to overlook. Solid, dependable and a great advantage for us in all that he brings to the team

Melky Cabrera (28). It’s easy to forget that he’s still the 4th youngest player on the roster. 2007 wasn’t quite 2006 for Melky but he means that it would be hard to improve on two parts of the outfield.

Johnny Damon (18). Like Mussina, he had a sub-par 2007. Can he come back to his previous standard? Does he still have the desire for the game that he had during his Boston years? Another question mark.

Hideki Matsui (55). The recently married Mr. Matsui. Slow start to Spring training and advancing years but it’s still good to have him on the team.

Jason Giambi (25). Hard-to-believe that Giambi would still be in the Bronx if it wasn’t for the ridiculous contract that the Yankees gifted him in earlier years. I’d be happier if he wasn’t on the roster but for the team’s sake, I hope he has a better year than his forgettable 2007.

Also around:

Andy Pettitte (46). Back trouble puts him on the disabled list after a difficult and troubling off-season. Can he overcome all that he has brought upon himself? Is he still the pitcher he was even without all the back-story? We’ll have to wait and see a little longer…

Sean Henn (30). Mr Henn gets more chances than most but his left-handed action means he is still in the mix but injured. If and when Traber goes to triple-A, he may get yet another chance but the main question is which team will give him a tryout after that.

Scott Patterson (no number allocated). A surprising exclusion. His time will come.

Kei Igawa, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, Chase Wright. We’ve seen them before. The writing is on the wall as they fail to make the cut.

Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens. They were supposed to be the two major candidates for the long-relief spot. Neither of them made it. Who will be in long-relief? Will Karstens return to health? Will Rasner settle for being at Triple-A? Questions, always questions…..

Overall we look a little thin. 1b is a real question and LF is a dilemma. Left-handed relief is very weak. Do we have 5 dependable starters? We need a little luck and one or two new faces if we are going to trouble Boston for the division leadership. 

Prediction: Wild Card.